This article presents a multilevel analysis of the variation in Macedonian
public opinion on two key issues: (1) perceptions of the causes of the conflict during
2001; and (2) support for the rapid implementation of the Ohrid agreement, which
was a vital part of the end of hostilities. This analysis disaggregates the differences
among Macedonians on these issues on the basis of a three-level model where the
municipalities constitute the highest level; the intermediate level, neighborhoods, is represented by the sampling clusters; and the lowest level is represented by the
individual respondents. We assess the relative importance of geographical unit
versus individual differences for these beliefs and attitudes, and seek to explain these
with geographical contextual variables and individual attributes. These analyses are
based on data on approximately 2,500 adult respondents to national Macedonian
surveys conducted during November–December 2003. We find a significant degree
of ethnic Macedonian–ethnic Albanian polarization, which makes other individuallevel
determinants insignificant or trivial in effect. However, we do find considerable
significant variation across municipalities and clusters, after taking into account
respondent’s ethnicity. The significance of such contextual variables as violent
events in the area and the proportion of Albanians differs depending on the issue
and the geographical units involved.