Application of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) in estimating under-five mortality levels and trends in Iran 1990-2013, study protocol

Type Journal Article - Archives of Iranian Medicine
Title Application of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) in estimating under-five mortality levels and trends in Iran 1990-2013, study protocol
Author(s)
Volume 17
Issue 3
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
Page numbers 189-192
URL https://search.proquest.com/openview/9589e98f913e30df0ce0f9b5f36594b8/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=105​783
Abstract
Background: Searching for the latest methods of estimating mortality rates is a major concern for researchers who are working in burden
of diseases. Child mortality is an important indicator for assessing population health care services in a country. The National and SubQDWLRQDO%XUGHQRI'LVHDVHV,QMXULHVDQG5LVN)DFWRUV
1$6%2'LVFRQGXFWHGLQ,UDQZLWKFRPSDUDWLYHPHWKRGVDQGGH¿QLWLRQVRI*OREDO
Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 to estimate major population health measures including child mortality rate. The need to have accurate and
valid estimation of under-5 mortality rate led to apply more powerful and reliable methods.
Method:7KH DYDLODEOH GDWDVHWV FRQVLVW RI XQGHU¿YHPRUWDOLW\ UDWHVIURP GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ GHDWK UHJLVWUDWLRQ V\VWHPV DQG
summary birth history (SBH) questions from censuses and Demographic Health Survey. These datasets are gathered at national and subQDWLRQDOOHYHOV:HKDYH¿YHWLPHVHULHVRIXQGHU¿YHPRUWDOLW\UDWHVIURP6%+PHWKRGWKDWHDFKRQHFRQWDLQV\HDUWLPHSHULRG:HDOVR
calculated Child mortality rates from death registration for 5 years. The main challenge is how to combine and integrate these different time
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*DXVVLDQ3URFHVV5HJUHVVLRQ*35LVXVHGDVWKH¿QDOVWDJHIRUJHQHUDWLQJ\HDUO\FKLOGPRUWDOLW\UDWHVLQWKLVVWXG\*35LVD%D\HVLDQ
WHFKQLTXHWKDWXVHVGDWDLQIRUPDWLRQDQGGH¿QHVVHYHUDOKLHUDUFKLFDOSULRUSDUDPHWHUVIRUPRGHO,QFRUSRUDWLRQRI*35DQG0&0&PHWKRGVSUHGLFWHGUDWHVDUHXSGDWHGXVLQJGDWDDQGGH;¿QHGSDUDPHWHUVLQPRGHO7KLVPHWKRGDOVRFDSWXUHVERWKVDPSOLQJDQGQRQVDPSOLQJ
errors and provides uncertainty intervals. The existence of uncertainty for predicting mortality rate is one of the considerable advantages of
GPR that distinguish it from other alternative methods.
Discussion: Estimating accurate and reliable child mortality rates at national and sub-national levels is one of the important parts of NASBOD
project in Iran. Gaussian Process Regression with its special features improves achievement of this goal. GPR is a serious competitor
for other supervised mortality predictive methods. This article aims to explain the application and preferences of GPR method in estimating
child mortality rate.
Keywords: Bayesian sampling-based method, child mortality rate, gaussian process regression, NASBOD, study protocol
Cite this article as: Meh

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