Modelling of future energy demand for Tanzania

Type Journal Article - Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy
Title Modelling of future energy demand for Tanzania
Volume 4
Issue 7
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
Page numbers 16-31
This paper present modelling of long-term energy demand forecast in the main economic sectors of Tanzania.
The forecast of energy demand for all economic sectors is analyzed by using the Model for Analysis of Energy
Demand (MAED) for a study period from 2010-2040. In the study three scenarios namely business as usual
(BAU), low economic consumption (LEC) and high economic consumption scenario (HEC) were formulated to
simulate possible future long-term energy demand based on socio-economic and technological development with
the base year of 2010. Results from all scenario suggests an increased energy demand in consuming sectors with
biomass being a dominant energy form in service and household sectors in a study period. Predicted energy
demand is projected to increase at a growth rate of 4.1% and reach 74 MTOE in 2040 under BAU scenario. The
growth rates for LEC and HEC are projected at 3.5% and 5.1% reaching 62 MTOE and 91 MTOE in 2040
respectively. Electricity demand increases at a rate of 8.5% to reach 4236 kTOE in 2040 under BAU scenario
while electricity demand under LEC and HEC increases to 3693 kTOE and 5534 kTOE in 2040 respectively.
Sectrorial predicted demand results under both scenarios determines high demand of biomass for service and
household sectors with decreasing demand of biomass in industry sector. Transport sectors predicted energy
demand pattern suggests an increased demand in passenger transport than freight transport in both scenarios.
Final energy demand per capita in both scenario show an increased trend with lower growth in LEC scenario
while there is a decrease in energy intensity throughout study period.

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