The objective of this paper is to motivate and introduce an approach being developed by the OECD
Secretariat in conjunction with a research team at the University of São Paolo for measuring the
disaggregated (household-level) impacts of agricultural policy reform in the case of Brazil. Two elements
of the reform process are of interest: first, the impact of reforms undertaken by other countries either
individually or at the multilateral level; and second the effects of national policy reforms. The former
should lead to improved market access for Brazilian products and reduced competition from subsidised
rival suppliers; the latter to lower prices for import-competing products. In each case, the principal concern
is with the effects that these reforms will have on poor (or potentially poor) households. In this regard, two
questions dominate. On the export side, how widely diffused are the gains from improved market access,
and to what extent do they benefit poor households either directly or indirectly? On the import side, how
are poor households affected by lower market prices for import-competing products, either as producers or
consumers, and how are households that are adversely affected able to adjust?
With this focus in mind, the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 summarises the main policy changes
that have taken place in the past 10 years, looking at both changes in the global policy and market
environment (as it affects Brazil) and changes to Brazil’s own policy regime. This section seeks to provide
some context in terms of the kinds of policy changes that need to be analysed. Section 3 summarises the
impacts that these policy changes have had at the sectoral level, in terms of their effects on prices, supply
and demand balances and productivity, while Section 4 looks at attempts that have been made the measure
consequences of these impacts at the household level. In each case, the aim is not to provide an exhaustive
description of events, but rather to identify the main sectoral and household connections that need to be
accommodated within a prospective modelling framework. In the light of this assessment, Section 5
sketches out a methodological approach that integrates the measurement of global and national market
impacts with household level responses.