Natural Resource Shocks and Conflict in India’s Red Belt

Type Report
Title Natural Resource Shocks and Conflict in India’s Red Belt
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2012
URL http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.261.1663&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Abstract
Is there a causal relationship between shocks to natural resources and the intensity of conflict? This question has been subject to an intense debate between those who argue for and against such a causal relationship. The latter group has highlighted the methodological flaws that underpin the claims of the former group, with particular emphasis being laid on the absence of a solid econometric underpinning to the empirical analyses of proponents of such a link. In this paper we attempt to advance this debate by conducting a rigorous econometric analysis of a civil conflict that the Indian Prime Minister has called the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by his country, the so called Naxal conflict. This conflict is well suited to examining the causal link between natural resource shocks and conflict, because it meets the one of the key conditions under which this link could plausibly hold; a large proportion of the population in the Naxal belt of states is dependent on natural resources for their livelihood. We focus on overtime within-district variation in the intensity of conflict in these states. Using a novel dataset of killings that we created from a thorough survey of the local language press, we find that adverse natural resource shocks have a robust, significant association with the intensity of conflict. A one standard deviation decrease in our measure of natural resources increases killings by 12.5% contemporaneously, 9.7% after a year and 42.2% after two years. Our instrumental variables strategy allows us to interpret these findings in a causal manner. The authors would like to especially thank Adnan Farooqui and Sucharita Sengupta who spend several years putting together the Maoist database with remarkable perseverance and fortitude. We are also grateful to Babu Dasri for accessing news sources in Andhra Pradesh and to Zaheeb in Bihar and Jharkhand.

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