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Citation Information

Type Journal Article - The Egyptian population and family planning review
Title The relational Gompertz model in detecting the recent changes of fertility in Egypt
Volume 27
Issue 2
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 1993
Page numbers 82
URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12345803
he Gompertz relational model was designed to measure the force of mortality in 1825 by Benjamin Gompertz, and was applied to fertility data by Brass in 1974. The author investigated recent changes in fertility in Egypt using Gompertz's model. Data on women's fertility behavior are drawn from the 1991 PAP/CHILD survey and the 1992 Demographic and Health Survey, respectively sampling 9073 and 9978 women. His analysis determined that fertility remains high in Egypt even though there is some indication of decline from former levels in the recent past. The total fertility rate consistently declined from 5.3 during 1980-1988 to 4.5 in 1991, while the level of contraceptive use increased from 37.8% to 47.8%. Conventional measures failed to identify a significant decline in fertility, but the Gompertz model identified a real decline in fertility especially from 1988.

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