Mexico has a concentrated HIV epidemic, with male sex workers constituting a key affected population. We estimated annual HIV cumulative incidence among male sex workers’ partners, and then compared incidence under three hypothetical intervention scenarios: improving condom use; and scaling up HIV treatment as prevention, considering current viral suppression rates (CVS, 60.7 %) or full viral suppression among those treated (FVS, 100 %). Clinical and behavioral data to inform model parameterization were derived from a sample (n = 79) of male sex workers recruited from street locations and Clínica Condesa, an HIV clinic in Mexico City. We estimated annual HIV incidence among male sex workers’ partners to be 8.0 % (95 % CI: 7.3–8.7). Simulation models demonstrated that increasing condom use by 10 %, and scaling up HIV treatment initiation by 50 % (from baseline values) would decrease the male sex workers-attributable annual incidence to 5.2, 4.4 % (CVS) and 3.2 % (FVS), respectively. Scaling up the number of male sex workers on ART and implementing interventions to ensure adherence is urgently required to decrease HIV incidence among male sex workers’ partners in Mexico City.