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Citation Information

Type Journal Article - Agricultural Systems
Title A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data
Volume 111
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2012
Page numbers 85-95
URL http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/36708/AntleJohnAgriculturalResourceEco​nomicsMethodEvaluatingClimate.pdf?sequence=1
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate
change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential.
Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special
challenges. High data demands including site-specific bio-physical and economic data are an
important constraint. This paper applies a new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff
Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates
technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a
heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the
kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where
semi-subsistence systems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based
on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact
assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems,
including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are
analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without
adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study
areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible,
generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and
adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios.

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