Central Data Catalog

Citation Information

Type Journal Article - Population Studies
Title Evidence of age exaggeration in demographic estimates for Pakistan
Volume 36
Issue 2
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 1982
Page numbers 257-270
URL http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324728.1982.10409031
‘Own-children’ fertility estimates based on Pakistan's 1973 Housing, Economic and Demographic Survey implausibly indicate a sharp rise in marital fertility at younger reproductive ages and a sharp decline at older reproductive ages between 1962–6 and l967–71. Age-specific death rates based on Pakistan's l962–5 Population Growth Estimation Experiment are too high below the age of minimum mortality and too low above this age, compared with fitted model age patterns of mortality. P/F ratio estimates of age-specific birth rates derived from Pakistan's l971 Population Growth Survey (PGS) are too low below the age of peak fertility and too high above this age, compared with parallel estimates derived from the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS). These changes and discrepancies are plausibly explained by a pattern of age exaggeration that increases with age in all the above-mentioned data sets except the PFS, in which the quality of age data appears to be relatively good. In all likelihood the changes and discrepancies are either not real or much smaller than estimated. A noteworthy by-product of the analysis is that the common procedure of fitting a stable population from life expectancy and the proportion of population below age 35 does not work well in Pakistan.

Related studies