How many Rwandans participated in the 1994 genocide? Existing estimates are
hugely discrepant and often not supported with evidence. Some Rwandan
government officials claim there were three million perpetrators.1 Other observers
claim there were “hundreds of thousands” (Des Forges, 1999, p 2; Mamdani,
2001, p 7; Scherrer, 2002, p 126; Waller, 2002, p 67).2 Still others estimate tens
of thousands (Jones, 2001, p 41).3 The high-end estimate effectively criminalizes
the entire adult Hutu population at the time of the genocide.4 The low-end
estimate is equivalent to a small fraction of the adult male Hutu population.
Which is right? Resolving the question is important not only for understanding
the genocide’s specifics. A reliable estimate of the number of perpetrators also
has implications for the post-genocide environment in Rwanda. Is the current
government facing a “criminal population,” as some claim, or something far less
than that? Calculating the exact number of perpetrators is probably impossible
given the evidence that is currently available, but a better estimate than currently
exists is possible and important. This article’s principal aim is to do that—to
provide an estimate that is both empirically based and systematically calculated.