In this paper, we rely on the CFSVA survey of 2005 to assess both the impact of rainfall variability
on the food security of rural households in Mali, and the role of remittances in their
adaptive capacity. There are two stages to our analysis: first, we design a composite food security
index which enables us to divide households into three categories. Then, we estimate a
partial proportional odds logistic model (Peterson and Harrell, 1990) in order to find the main
determinants leading to a switch from one category to the other. We further show that interannual
and seasonal rainfall variability have a negative impact on food security, especially in
southern Mali. Agro-ecological conditions in this region are usually more favourable, but it
was weakened by the cotton crisis of the 2000s. As for remittances, their impact is positive,
though it needs to be qualified: they enable households to solve temporary food security situations,
but they have no effect on structural food security issues.