Three essays on the effect of incarceration, drug use and abortion legalization on STD risk

Type Thesis or Dissertation - PhD thesis
Title Three essays on the effect of incarceration, drug use and abortion legalization on STD risk
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2007
URL https://getd.libs.uga.edu/pdfs/cunningham_anthony_s_200708_phd.pdf
Abstract
In this dissertation, I argue that the “war on drugs” has increased Black STD risk by
creating imbalanced sex ratios which has enabled men with “tastes” for promiscuity to form
risky sexual relationships. I test this hypothesis in several ways. First, I use data from the
NLSY97 to examine the effect of mating options on promiscuity and condom use and use
diverging sex ratios for Blacks in late adolescence to identify the effect of mating options on
risky sexual behavior. I find that Black men at the 90th quantile — men I term “promiscuous”
– will have between 1.3 and 2.4 more female sex partners a year due to changes in the sex
ratio over the sample period. I also find evidence that Black men alter their condom use
in response to the sex ratio. Separately, I test for a link between incarceration rates and
STD outcomes. I find strong evidence that Black incarceration rates are associated with
higher rates of gonorrhea and syphilis among Black females. I also have provided the first
quantitative evidence that the crack epidemic increased gonorrhea and syphilis.
Gonorrhea rates began falling in the mid-to-late 1980s as the prison population continued
expanding. I argue that abortion legalization, waning crack and the AIDS epidemic are partly
responsible for these changes. I exploit the natural experiment offered by early legalization
of abortion five states in 1970, compared to universal legalization in 1973, to estimate the
effect of abortion legalization on second generation gonorrhea rates. I find mixed evidence
for the abortion legalization hypothesis, combined with consistently strong evidence that
the crack epidemic and the AIDS epidemic contributed to the declines. Using a differencein-difference-in-difference
model, I find Black 15–19 year-old gonorrhea rates fell relative to
35–39 year-olds in repeal states compared to Roe legalization states. I also find that for
every 100 deaths from AIDS, Black gonorrhea rates fell 7 cases per 100,000. The crack index
consistently reveals strong positive correlations with gonorrhea rates for Blacks and Whites,
but as the index is based on 3 proxies for crack, interpretation of the coefficients are difficult.

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