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Citation Information

Type Thesis or Dissertation - Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
Title Cost effectiveness and survival analysis of HIV and AIDS treatment in Kenya
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2013
URL http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/56454/Cost effectiveness and survival analysis​of HIV and aids treatment in Kenya.pdf?sequence=3
HIV and AIDS is a major cause of premature death and imposes a large disease burden in
Kenya. An estimated 1.5 million people are infected with human immune-deficiency virus
(HIV), while 1.5 million have died since the HIV virus was first detected in Kenya in 1984.
Economic studies on the cost and health effects of ART/HAART are very scarce in
developing countries, Kenya included. There is also limited understanding of the life time
cost and benefits associated with HIV and AIDS treatment, and about survival rate
conditional on treatment. Also equally poorly understood are impacts of socioeconomic
factors on survival of HIV positive patients and on treatment follow-up.
The aim of this thesis is to enhance understanding of the interaction between patient treatment
outcomes and economic dynamics given the existing HIV and AIDS trends in Kenya. To
achieve its aim, the study collected data from two hospitals in Kenya – Mbagathi Hospital in
Nairobi and Moi National Referral Hospital in Eldoret. A micro-costing method was used to
cost all the treatment inputs, including laboratory services, human resources for health,
prescriptive dugs and ARVs. Using Markov modelling methods the study carried out costeffectiveness
analysis involving a static and dynamic comparison of HIV and AIDS
treatments in the two hospitals and estimated the lifetime costs and benefits of ARTs and
Non-ARTs. The thesis also employed survival analysis to estimate the survival rate of the
patients on treatment follow up from the two different treatment sites controlling for potential
The study found that ART treatment is the most cost effective treatment method. It also
shows that those patients using ARVs and are on treatment follow up in AMPATH (Moi
Hospital) treatment site survived for a significantly longer duration of time compared to the
patients who were on follow up in Mbagathi Hospital. In addition, the study found that the
patients who were on ARVs and were employed at the time of treatment debut had a lower
risk of dying compared to the patients who were on ARVs and were unemployed at the time
of enrolment for treatment. The study confirmed that ARVs is beneficial and increasingly
beneficial the lower the CD4 count values. The study found that condom use not only
prevents new HIV infection, but also reduces the mortality risk for the patients on treatment
follow up. Finally, in terms of gender, the study found that men who were on treatment follow
up had a higher risk of dying than the women.
The study findings support the policy of universal access to treatment for AIDS patients that
the government is currently implementing. However, for this policy to achieve the desired
results the government not only needs to increase employment but also to ensure that
employees are not retrenched based on their HIV positive status. The study concludes that
ART treatment is a highly cost-effective intervention.

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