The increasing concern about the consequences of warfare for civilian populations
has led to a growing body of demographic research. This research
has been essential in providing estimates of war-induced excess mortality, a
primary indicator by which to assess the intensity of wars and the adequacy
of humanitarian responses.1
Research on war-induced changes in fertility is
much scarcer, although the need to monitor women’s status and reproductive
health in war zones has been widely acknowledged (Palmer, Lush, and Zwi
1999; McGinn 2000; McGinn and Purdin 2004; Austin et al. 2008; McGinn
2009; Patel et al. 2009). This is especially evident in the case of the 2003–2011
war in Iraq. Several studies have sought to quantify the impact of this war on
mortality (e.g., Roberts et al. 2004; Burnham et al. 2006; Iraq Family Health
Survey Study Group 2008; Hagopian et al. 2013). By contrast, virtually nothing
is known about the effect of this war on fertility.
This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends
in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the war and
the factors underlying them. The analysis is based on retrospective birth history
data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys
(I-MICS). To assess the quality of the data, I calculate retrospective fertility
rates from each survey by single calendar year and compare fertility estimates
from one survey with the estimates for the same period from the subsequent
survey. I then pool the data to reconstruct annual fertility trends from 1997
to 2010, allowing for comparisons over a period spanning before and after
the onset of the war. Using decomposition techniques, I quantify how much
of the change in fertility rates during wartime was accounted for by changes
in the proportion of married women and how much by changes in the prevalence
of birth control within marriage. The findings have implications for the
design of women’s empowerment and health strategies in Iraq and similar
war-affected settings.