Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently the total fertility
rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in
African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition can be
valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries.
This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel
to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility in South Africa since the 1960s. The analysis
attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improving
education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of
the transition is ascribed to the unobservables. This may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use
of contraceptives and changes in both intra-household relationships and the social role of
women.