DDI_TZA_2010_MCC-ZI_v01_M Millennium Challenge Corporation 2014-04 NADA Version 1.0 (April 2014) Version 2.0 (May 2015). Edited version based on Version 01 (DDI-MCC-TZA-IE-ENERGY-2010-v1) that was done by Millennium Challenge Corporation. Zanzibar Interconnector 2010 MCC-ZI 2010 TZA_2010_MCC-ZI_v01_M Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. NADA Millennium Challenge Corporation Monitoring & Evaluation Division Independent Performance Evaluation Not applicable to this evaluation; no quantitative data to be shared Energy Performance evaluation pre-post Zanzibar The Mathematica team designed the evaluation of the cable activity in close cooperation with MCC, MCA-T, and stakeholders in Zanzibar. The impact evaluation will address four research questions. These research questions are answered with different sets of data, but together contribute to answering an overarching question about the extent of the cable activity’s impact. The four research questions are: • Research question 1—What is the impact of the cable activity on the reliability and quality of electricity supply on Unguja Island? • Research question 2—What is the impact of the cable activity on the financial performance of hotels on Unguja Island? • Research question 3—What were the effects on hotel operations of the extended power outage (“blackout”) in Unguja Island from December 2009 through March 2010? • Research question 4—Is the cable activity warranted based on the benefit-cost analyses? (Re-estimation of the project’s economic rate of return.) One planned component of the evaluation was a pre-post study using ZECO data on aggregate electricity consumption, reliability, quality, and connectivity in Zanzibar; that component will not be carried out due to concerns about data quality. The other component of the evaluation involves a pre-post analysis of hotel survey data. The hotel survey is meant to be a case study focusing on a specific key industry that is sensitive to electricity supply. This case study is used as a proxy for how businesses may be affected by power quality and reliability. The survey questions related to the blackout are meant to provide some indication of the nature and potential magnitude of the impacts that can be expected from the cable activity by reducing blackouts. Tanzania Unguja Island Hotels The evaluation will use two sets of data to answer the first three research questions. For the baseline study, the study team collected electricity supply data from ZECO and carried out surveys of hotels. Sample survey data [ssd] Thirty hotels were surveyed three times each in the months of June, July, and August 2010. We used a master list of 306 hotels (based on data from 2008) provided by the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism as the sampling frame to select the 30 hotels that we sampled for the survey. To remain in the sample, hotels were required to have: (i) ten or more rooms, to distinguish the hotels in the sample from smaller guesthouse-like operations; and (ii) an international grade of at least one star. After applying those restrictions, 45 hotels were put into the potential sample pool. The remaining hotels were then randomly assigned a number and sorted from lowest to highest. The Mathematica team made initial contact with the hotels based on the order of that list. If a hotel was out of business, was not connected to the ZECO's electricity network, or refused to participate in the survey, it was replaced with the next hotel on the list. A local Zanzibari consultant worked with a representative from the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism to make first contacts with the hotels. Millennium Challenge Corporation Millennium Challenge Corporation http://data.mcc.gov/evaluations/index.php/catalog/91 Cost: None Due to small sample size and sensitive business information collected, the data cannot be anonymized sufficiently to protect the confidentiality of respondents. Therefore, the data from the hotel survey will not be made publicly available.