This paper proposes and operationalizes an approach to measuring poverty based on the probability of remaining poor or not. The paper does the following: we review the global and Indonesia literature on poverty dynamics; we propose a set of poverty lines based on the prospects for the poor using the Indonesian Family Life Survey for 2000–2007; we discuss determinants of poverty at the various poverty lines and consider the poverty probability trends in Indonesia for the period 2000– 2013 using the national socio-economic survey, the Susenas.