This study investigates the underlying problems causing food insecurity in Ethiopia and tests, policy
options that could alleviate the problem in the future. For this purpose, we designed, calibrated and
tested a system dynamics model that integrates population, food production, and market dynamics.
Model analyses show that in the past, both availability of and access to food constrained the actual
food consumption of the population, that is both food supplies produced and purchasing power were
insufficient for ensuring the required daily calorie intake of the population. Moreover, degraded land
contributed considerably to the poor average productivity of the land. Policy analyses showed that
future policy options such as land rehabilitation and capacity building for skilled use of agricultural
inputs such as seeds and fertilizer need to be combined carefully to account for their different
implementation times.