Volatility of World Soybean Prices, Import Tariffs and Poverty in Indonesia A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis

Type Journal Article - The Journal of Applied Economic Research
Title Volatility of World Soybean Prices, Import Tariffs and Poverty in Indonesia A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
Author(s)
Volume 5
Issue 2
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2011
Page numbers 139-181
URL http://mar.sagepub.com/content/5/2/139.short
Abstract
This study aims to measure the impact of world price volatility and import tariffs of rice on poverty in Indonesia. Applying a Computable General Equilibrium - Microsimulation approach and the endogenous poverty line, this study found that the volatility of world rice price during 2007 to 2009 did not have a large effect on the poverty incidence in Indonesia. The simulation result s showed that the number of poverty increased (decreased) by 414,708 (709,051) responding to 50 per cent increase (decrease) in the world price of rice. This equals to 0.20 (0.34) increase (decrease) in the poverty index (head count index). Moreover, a significant increase or decrease in import tariffs of rice, for instance 100 per cent increase in tariff, did not strongly affect the poverty incidence. The benefits of an increase in the world price and import tariffs of rice are mostly enjoyed by agricultural households holding land more than 1 hectare.

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