Pakistan has implemented various structural change and stabilisation programmes
over the last twelve years with a view to improving the levels of efficiency and
consequently higher levels of output and employment. Evaluation of the impact of
Structural Adjustment and Stabilisation Programme (SAP), that entails broad range of
policy conditionalities and envisage changes in a large number of variables is quite
complicated and tools of partial equilibrium analysis are hardly sufficient. This is because
the effects of the SAP in the context of simultaneous changes engendered by extraneous
powerful influences, comparing the pre-and post SAP situation without controlling for
factors other than SAP, may not yield very meaningful results.
The impact of SAP may be discerned by examining the counterfactual. Often the
procedures used under this approach involve either comparison of the performance of SAP
and non-SAP countries or within a country the actual performance with the expected
performance in the absence of SAP implementation. Such expected level of performance is
not a straightforward option as it may rely on historical functional relations to evaluate the
performance of a period characterised by massive structural changes. Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) models currently used to evaluate the effects of SAP are also sensitive
to ‘closure rules’. It defines the manners of market clearing rules and feedback effects of
decision taken or shocks, in all types of markets.
Despite the imperfections and complications in the evaluative procedures, the
effects of SAP have been assessed in many developing countries. Research carried out by
the PIDE-based project “Micro Impact of Macro Adjustment Policies” (MIMAP)1
is a
pioneering venture that assesses the impact of various versions of SAP implemented by
Pakistan since the mid-1980s. The general objective of the MIMAP project has been to
facilitate the formulation of policies aimed at growth and improved welfare levels particularly of vulnerable groups, in Pakistan. The three specific objectives include:
(1) To highlight and quantify the impact of macroeconomic and adjustment
policies on poverty levels thereby yielding policy relevant insights;
(2) To achieve the above specific objective through the use of sample household
survey, the use of existing secondary socio-economic data sources, and the
development of a micro-macro modelling exercise; and
(3) To disseminate the project’s results within the country and to other MIMAP
groups through technical publications, policy papers and seminars.
In order to operationalise these objectives, the project was divided into two
integrated but stand-alone components: poverty monitoring and modeling. Under the
poverty-mentoring component, a nationally representative survey was carried out, while the
modeling component was designed to develop Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and
Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE). During the first phase of the Pakistan
MIMAP project in total 13 studies were completed.2
The present study brings out major
conclusions and policy implications based on these studies. It also sets out future direction
for research.