Type | Working Paper |
Title | Modeling migration flows in the Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam: an augmented gravity approach. |
Author(s) | |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2016 |
URL | http://gfa.hof.uni-frankfurt.de/arno/ArnoXI/Papers/Huy.pdf |
Abstract | This article aims at modeling inter-provincial migration flows between provinces of the Mekong River Delta (MRD) region and 3 major urban cities in Vietnam. The key feature of the model is that it departs from the time proofed gravity model, which is expected to verify whether hypothesis on determinants of migration suggested by the literature hold or not in the case of the MRD region. The result of estimations indicates that migration flows between the MRD provinces and 3 major urban cities vary with the square root of the product of province populations and the ratio of income at destination over income at source, but inversely relate with distance. In addition, the forecast shows that the MRD region remains an important out-flow region with out-flows from provinces increasing by 0.4 million in the next five years, among Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Dong Thap and An Giang will see the largest increases in out flows. |
» | Vietnam - Population and Housing Census 2009 |