Identification and quantification of streamflow trends in Botswana: Implications for water security under global climate change

Type Working Paper
Title Identification and quantification of streamflow trends in Botswana: Implications for water security under global climate change
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2011
Abstract
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface
temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 o
C by the year 2100 compared to current
climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise
in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events
like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could
pose serious challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid
regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible
impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate
change models and complex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to
climatic changes. Therefore observational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local
scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller
reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines
spatial and temporal changes in streamflow volumes and their association with climatic
factors based on the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and partial correlation.
Streamflows display decreasing trends for most streams highlighting the importance of
local monitoring of streamflow for informed water management strategies.

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